Robert Prechter (Socionomics) made a twin contrarian observation giving profound and substantive explanation for where we are in our economic trends: One, we humans behave emotionally as one moving herd, and two, our herd emotions are the cause rather than the effect of the rising and falling of our markets. Never mind the overstatement and oversimplification (assuming I represent Prechter accurately); consider how the observation helps explain a great deal ... and how you may be able to take advantage of it in your business.

Taking a piece related to the observation, you know that people buy what they want rather than what they need. Do you buy foods that are good for you or foods that taste sweet? Does a poor man have a 36 inch HDTV or extra roof insulation to reduce his heating bills? Given a choice between getting a wisdom tooth pulled or buying a name brand purse ... in other words, the market is made up of customers and the customer buys, invests or doesn't based on emotions.

Painting in broad terms, again for simplicity sake, those emotions can be broken into two basic camps. One camp could be comprised of emotion laden terms like excitement, joy, greed, vanity, hope, optimism, goodwill, confidence, bright colors, and openness. The other could be comprised of terms like fear, suspicion, anger, blame shifting, circle the wagons, pessimism, depression, subdued colors, and sarcasm. When enough people in the herd are dominated by emotions in the first camp, we call it a bull market; the other is a bear. And of course there are big and little movements and trends in the herd.

As I write, I think we are still in the beginning stages of a long, large bear market following the largest and longest bull market in history. What sells in a bear market may be different than in a bull market, or the major reasons or emotions for buying the same product or service may differ. What sells relatively well in a bear market promises security, alleviates fear (e.g., the phrase "proven methods"), nourishes fragile trust (through relation building and coaching), rationalizes anger (sadly), reinforces group identity, and masks (alcohol) or diverts from (entertainment) emotional pain. Why are warnings against scams popular? What is the attraction of dating services now in comparison to bull market days? Does sex sell because of associated joy and pleasure or because it proffers security (with a mate) or temporary relief--or for a darker reason?

Of course, there are social trends on which one should not capitalize because it would be wrong or unfair. On the brighter side, there were successful and legitimate businesses during the Depression years of the 1930s. My grandfather got a job in pharmaceutical research in 1929 and kept it through the 1930s, World War II, the Korean Conflict and beyond--in other words, the health industry did well, or parts of it did. (At present, the establishment medical industry is often very expensive. Cheaper, effective alternatives may do well.) Shoe and car repair are safe bets in a downturn. Money (or energy bill) saving devices may do alright. Think of home and business security systems and breeding guard dogs. Businesses that can sell alternative income opportunities for cheaper start up costs have a hungry market--work from home, affiliate marketing, network marketing/MLM, paid surveys, etc. Up for a brainstorming session, anyone?

Those who understand the emotions of the times position themselves to provide what the herd wants.